Eu havia sugerido ao Itamaraty e ao MMA que ao invés da ação antecipada (o cumprimento das metas de 2020, antes disso) servir como crédito para cumprir metas pós 2020, ela fosse usada para um Mecanismo de Ação Antecipada e Adicional e uma "moeda do clima" na linha de uma 'precificação positiva' da redução de carbono que explico em detalhe no blog anterior.
A implicação prática desse posicionamento em relação à Conferência COP 20, em Lima, será a proposta do Brasil da Conferência aprovar o principio geral do "valor social" da redução de carbono e do reconhecimento da mesma enquanto "unidade de valor financeiro conversível".
A minha sugestão inicial é:
A minha sugestão inicial é:
“Considerando
as conclusões dos relatórios do IPCC;
Considerando
as perdas econômicas e sociais crescentes impostas pelo aquecimento global ao
futuro do planeta;
Considerando
que a redução de emissões de CO2 e demais Gases Efeito Estufa (GEE) Ceq é vital
para a redução e limitação das consequências dessas perdas,
Os 194 governos integrantes da UNFCCC declaram o
valor social da redução de carbono e o seu reconhecimento enquanto unidade de
valor financeiro conversível.”
Caso consigamos emplacar isso em Lima será o primeiro passo para algo muito importante que é a criação de um pano de fundo amigável para a transição para uma economia de baixo carbono no sistema financeiro internacional.
Como explico no blog anterior a partir daí haverá vários caminhos abertos: o mais simples é por dentro do sistema da UNFCCC. Consiste na remuneração numa "moeda do clima" dos países que anteciparem ou ultrapassarem metas. Essa "moeda do clima" serve para adquirir produtos, serviços e tecnologia que leve a reduções subsequentes com isso criando um ciclo virtuoso.
Com base no mesmo princípio há um segundo caminho muito mais ambicioso, teorizado pelos professores Jean Charles Hourcade e Michele Stua que implica na transformação da redução de carbono numa reserva de valor tipo era o "padrão ouro" entre 1944 e 1971.
Com base no mesmo princípio há um segundo caminho muito mais ambicioso, teorizado pelos professores Jean Charles Hourcade e Michele Stua que implica na transformação da redução de carbono numa reserva de valor tipo era o "padrão ouro" entre 1944 e 1971.
Muita coisa precisa ser estudada, pactuada e ajustada mas, acreditem, se a COP 20 aprovar o principio geral, toda uma nova era se abre aumentando as chances, hoje remotas, de mantermos o paradigma 450 ppm/2 graus.
Reproduzo a seguir a postulação submetida pelo Itamaraty a UNFCCC. A cópia que disponho está em inglês:
VIEWS OF BRAZIL ON ACCELERATING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
ENHANCED CLIMATE ACTION
Positive Incentives for the Promotion of Early and Additional Action: Recognizing the Social and Economic Value of Mitigation Activities
1. The Government of Brazil welcomes the opportunity to submit views to the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) and presents an approach to create positive incentives for accelerating the implementation of enhanced climate action, through the recognition of the social and economic value of mitigation activities.
2. The Brazilian government believes that the global benefits of engaging in activities related to tackling climate change outweigh the costs associated with them. As HE President Dilma Rousseff expressed in her speech at the UN Climate Summit, on 23 September 2014, "we must overcome the logic that preventing climate change negatively impacts the economy. Actions to reduce emissions and to foster adaptation must be considered a source of wealth, as they attract investments and warrant new initiatives of sustainable development." In light of IPCC SYR-5 findings on the growing economic and social costs resulting from climate change, UNFCCC Parties should seek ways and means to provide positive incentives for countries to act against climate change as early and as ambitious as possible.
3. Consistently with its mandate of facilitating pre-2020 ambitious action, ADP Workstream 2 should further explore ways and means to achieve early and additional mitigation results, with a view to closing the existing emissions gap and contributing to the fulfillment of the ultimate objective of the Convention. In this sense, ADP Workstream 2 should promote the engagement with financial and monetary policy experts and researchers, with a view to creating a locus for discussion of positive (economic, financial or monetary) incentives to Parties and all stakeholders willing to act as early and as ambitious as possible to tackle climate change. Such engagement could start by scheduling a Technical Expert Meeting (TEM) to consider the relationship between the promotion of early and additional mitigation actions by Parties and the recognition of such actions through positive (economic, financial or monetary) incentives. Involvement of key multilateral financial institutions would contribute to mobilize support and motivate further discussions in this regard, according to each institution’s mandate.
4. The TEM could address, inter alia, the potential benefits to the climate system of recognizing, at the appropriate multilateral level, the social and economic value intrinsic to mitigation activities. For that purpose, it would be important to consider how to develop possible instruments to recognize the results of early and additional action undertaken by Parties and to translate them into units of convertible financial value, for the purpose of
Positive Incentives for the Promotion of Early and Additional Action: Recognizing the Social and Economic Value of Mitigation Activities
1. The Government of Brazil welcomes the opportunity to submit views to the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) and presents an approach to create positive incentives for accelerating the implementation of enhanced climate action, through the recognition of the social and economic value of mitigation activities.
2. The Brazilian government believes that the global benefits of engaging in activities related to tackling climate change outweigh the costs associated with them. As HE President Dilma Rousseff expressed in her speech at the UN Climate Summit, on 23 September 2014, "we must overcome the logic that preventing climate change negatively impacts the economy. Actions to reduce emissions and to foster adaptation must be considered a source of wealth, as they attract investments and warrant new initiatives of sustainable development." In light of IPCC SYR-5 findings on the growing economic and social costs resulting from climate change, UNFCCC Parties should seek ways and means to provide positive incentives for countries to act against climate change as early and as ambitious as possible.
3. Consistently with its mandate of facilitating pre-2020 ambitious action, ADP Workstream 2 should further explore ways and means to achieve early and additional mitigation results, with a view to closing the existing emissions gap and contributing to the fulfillment of the ultimate objective of the Convention. In this sense, ADP Workstream 2 should promote the engagement with financial and monetary policy experts and researchers, with a view to creating a locus for discussion of positive (economic, financial or monetary) incentives to Parties and all stakeholders willing to act as early and as ambitious as possible to tackle climate change. Such engagement could start by scheduling a Technical Expert Meeting (TEM) to consider the relationship between the promotion of early and additional mitigation actions by Parties and the recognition of such actions through positive (economic, financial or monetary) incentives. Involvement of key multilateral financial institutions would contribute to mobilize support and motivate further discussions in this regard, according to each institution’s mandate.
4. The TEM could address, inter alia, the potential benefits to the climate system of recognizing, at the appropriate multilateral level, the social and economic value intrinsic to mitigation activities. For that purpose, it would be important to consider how to develop possible instruments to recognize the results of early and additional action undertaken by Parties and to translate them into units of convertible financial value, for the purpose of
backing further investments for the implementation of national sustainable development
policies. This notion differs from the so-called "carbon precification" because it changes
the focus from carbon costs, to be borne by economic agents, to the creation of a carbon
mitigation value, to be recognized as a source of wealth and development. As a result, such
approach has the potential to generate positive incentives for all stakeholders to further
engage in low-carbon activities, contributing to the attainment of the UNFCCC ultimate
objective.
5. The social value of mitigation activities stems from the level of effort and work undertaken by local communities in reducing or limiting their emissions. That involves not only local governments but also non-governmental organizations, social movements and workers ́ unions, as stakeholders that expect to have their efforts at local level recognized as relevant contributions to tackle climate change. Relevant action could include, for instance, the implementation of environmentally sound management of waste, low-carbon local public transport and mobility services, energy efficiency gains in replacing public illumination by low-emission alternatives, adaptation practices in agriculture that result in lower emissions, introduction of clean and renewable fuels, among other actions that lead to verified mitigation results and may be implemented in partnerships and in a decentralized way. Such recognition would be in line with the notion of environmental services. The economic value of such approach stems from the recognition of its social value, by creating a consistent, coherent and long-term system of results-based payment through attribution of a financial value to verified mitigation actions, to attract further investments and incentivize further action.
6. The results of the TEM could inform a policy discussion at ADP or SBSTA, prior to COP-21, aiming at further elaborating on the recognition of early and additional action under the UNFCCC, taking into account the accumulated experience by UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol bodies and mechanisms. The aim of such discussion would be to identify what steps are needed toward the recognition of verified mitigation results as units of convertible financial value, based on their intrinsic value as early or additional contribution by Parties to implement the Convention.
7. For the purpose of interlinking the work of ADP Workstreams 1 and 2, in particular for the period post-2020, the recognition of early and additional action by Parties under the UNFCCC could offer a role for Workstream 2 after 2015 and potentially after 2020. In that regard, "early action" could include pre-2020 activities that present quantified emissions reduction that have been undertaken voluntarily by Parties, with verified results. "Additional action" could include post-2020 activities that exceed the achievement of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) that Parties will commit to under the 2015 agreement, provided that Parties will not lower the ambition of their NDC for the purpose of producing artificially increased results to be accounted for as "additional action". In this regard, core rules to be included in the 2015 agreement need to be considered by ADP Workstream 1. The objective would be that quantified mitigation results from actions recognized as additional in the post-2020 period could, at the discretion of each Party, be used as a financial backing to support further mitigation actions, promoting a virtuous cycle building upon the benefits generated from previous verified results.
5. The social value of mitigation activities stems from the level of effort and work undertaken by local communities in reducing or limiting their emissions. That involves not only local governments but also non-governmental organizations, social movements and workers ́ unions, as stakeholders that expect to have their efforts at local level recognized as relevant contributions to tackle climate change. Relevant action could include, for instance, the implementation of environmentally sound management of waste, low-carbon local public transport and mobility services, energy efficiency gains in replacing public illumination by low-emission alternatives, adaptation practices in agriculture that result in lower emissions, introduction of clean and renewable fuels, among other actions that lead to verified mitigation results and may be implemented in partnerships and in a decentralized way. Such recognition would be in line with the notion of environmental services. The economic value of such approach stems from the recognition of its social value, by creating a consistent, coherent and long-term system of results-based payment through attribution of a financial value to verified mitigation actions, to attract further investments and incentivize further action.
6. The results of the TEM could inform a policy discussion at ADP or SBSTA, prior to COP-21, aiming at further elaborating on the recognition of early and additional action under the UNFCCC, taking into account the accumulated experience by UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol bodies and mechanisms. The aim of such discussion would be to identify what steps are needed toward the recognition of verified mitigation results as units of convertible financial value, based on their intrinsic value as early or additional contribution by Parties to implement the Convention.
7. For the purpose of interlinking the work of ADP Workstreams 1 and 2, in particular for the period post-2020, the recognition of early and additional action by Parties under the UNFCCC could offer a role for Workstream 2 after 2015 and potentially after 2020. In that regard, "early action" could include pre-2020 activities that present quantified emissions reduction that have been undertaken voluntarily by Parties, with verified results. "Additional action" could include post-2020 activities that exceed the achievement of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) that Parties will commit to under the 2015 agreement, provided that Parties will not lower the ambition of their NDC for the purpose of producing artificially increased results to be accounted for as "additional action". In this regard, core rules to be included in the 2015 agreement need to be considered by ADP Workstream 1. The objective would be that quantified mitigation results from actions recognized as additional in the post-2020 period could, at the discretion of each Party, be used as a financial backing to support further mitigation actions, promoting a virtuous cycle building upon the benefits generated from previous verified results.
8. The participation of multilateral financial institutions and Parties’ financial
authorities and Central Banks is instrumental to the establishment of specific rules on
economic and financial instruments designed to further support Parties that choose to use
the results of early and additional action to financially support further mitigation activities.
A decision by UNFCCC COP would send to financial actors a right signal that
governments are ready and willing to incorporate the social and economic value of
mitigation activities into their respective national policies. As a consequence, financial
regulators could devote efforts to develop ways to implement such policy decision, for
instance through the issuance of mitigation-backed securities or other instruments to
provide additional finance to stakeholders engaged in low-carbon projects and activities, at
levels that correspond to UNFCCC-verified mitigation results of that Party.
9. Multilateral recognition of the social and economic value of early and additional carbon mitigation activities would greatly contribute to closing the ambition gap before 2020 and to supporting further ambition by Parties in the post-2020 period. Only quantified mitigation resulting from the implementation by Parties of specific national policies should be recognized as early and additional action. Early and additional action should translate effective mitigation efforts by a Party. It should not derive from specific unintended circumstances, e.g economic downturns or natural events. Units of convertible financial value resulting from early and additional action by Parties should not be eligible for trading under flexibility mechanisms, for instance market-based mechanisms, to be established under UNFCCC or the 2015 agreement.
10. The translation of results from early and additional action into units of convertible financial value could provide an additional channel for developed country parties to facilitate implementation of their obligations under Articles 4.3 and 4.4 of the Convention. A share of proceeds from the issuance of government-backed mitigation-referenced financial instruments could contribute to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and to support adaptation activities in developing countries.
Proposed decision by COP-20
11. The Conference of the Parties should provide a clear political signal of its willingness to recognize the social and economic value of early and additional mitigation activities under the UNFCCC and to translate their verified results into units of convertible financial value, for the purpose of attracting investments and further promoting the implementation of national sustainable development policies by Parties. A Technical Expert Meeting under ADP Workstream 2 should be scheduled in an ADP session prior to COP-21 as a starting point to facilitate the consideration of the matter. ADP Workstream 1 should consider how to reflect this approach into the elements of the 2015 agreement.
9. Multilateral recognition of the social and economic value of early and additional carbon mitigation activities would greatly contribute to closing the ambition gap before 2020 and to supporting further ambition by Parties in the post-2020 period. Only quantified mitigation resulting from the implementation by Parties of specific national policies should be recognized as early and additional action. Early and additional action should translate effective mitigation efforts by a Party. It should not derive from specific unintended circumstances, e.g economic downturns or natural events. Units of convertible financial value resulting from early and additional action by Parties should not be eligible for trading under flexibility mechanisms, for instance market-based mechanisms, to be established under UNFCCC or the 2015 agreement.
10. The translation of results from early and additional action into units of convertible financial value could provide an additional channel for developed country parties to facilitate implementation of their obligations under Articles 4.3 and 4.4 of the Convention. A share of proceeds from the issuance of government-backed mitigation-referenced financial instruments could contribute to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and to support adaptation activities in developing countries.
Proposed decision by COP-20
11. The Conference of the Parties should provide a clear political signal of its willingness to recognize the social and economic value of early and additional mitigation activities under the UNFCCC and to translate their verified results into units of convertible financial value, for the purpose of attracting investments and further promoting the implementation of national sustainable development policies by Parties. A Technical Expert Meeting under ADP Workstream 2 should be scheduled in an ADP session prior to COP-21 as a starting point to facilitate the consideration of the matter. ADP Workstream 1 should consider how to reflect this approach into the elements of the 2015 agreement.
Caro Sirkis, o site remete ao documento original da proposta brasileira. Segundo esta, se entendi bem, não se trata de precificar o carbono, mas aparentemente de quantificar (co-) benefícios socioeconômicos da mitigação. Essa idéia de benefícios ganha-ganha é muito bonita no papel, mas na prática pouco funciona. A experiência mostra que quantificação de externalidades não é por si um argumento suficiente para mobilizar recursos. Do contrário, já teríamos reduzido significativamente a poluição das grandes cidades, que custa tanto ao SUS e à população. Sem a precificação do carbono passaremos mais uma ou duas décadas apostando em ferramentas como o MDL, que mal cumpriram 1% do objetivo da Convenção do Clima. Veja também que a proposta prevê que apenas países desenvolvidos paguem por essa moeda, em princípio desobrigando China, India e Brasil. Abraços Lucon
ResponderExcluirLucon: Sou totalmente favorável a taxar o carbono. Enquanto não conseguimos isso, ou mesmo que consigamos, é preciso também precificar "positivamente" a redução de carbono. A partir daí vários mecanismos são possíveis sugeri um deles que seria recompensar ações antecipadas e adicionais (uma vez estabelecidas as novas metas) que o seriam numa "moeda" que só compre produtos, serviços e tecnologia conduzindo a uma redução de GEE subsequente. O outro desdobramento é o proposto por Hourcade e Aglieta no qual certificados de redução de emissões servirão para o reembolso --garantido por um ente internacional a ser definido-- de financiamentos para mitigação. Uma coisa não exclui a outra. Atualmente essa "precificação positiva" é politicamente mais fácil do que a taxação. Tanto que conseguimos fazer assumir pelo Brasil isso mas não o outro. Ainda. A luta continua…Abraço Sirkis
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